Predictions by Paul the Prophet
Divination
Paul's career as an oracle began during the UEFA Euro 2008tournament.[2][4][8] In the lead-up to Germany's international football matches, Paul is presented with two clear plastic boxes, each containing food: a mussel or an oyster. Each container is marked with the flag of a team, one the flag of Germany, and the other the flag of Germany's opponent. The box which Paul opens first (and eats the contents of) is judged to be the predicted winner of the game.[9]
Paul's apparent success is comparable to a run of luck whentossing a coin. This connection has been made by Professor Chris Budd of the University of Bath, Professor David Spiegelharter ofCambridge University, and Etienne Roquain of Pierre and Marie Curie University.[10][11]
Under the hypothesis that Paul is equally likely to choose the winner or the loser of a match, and neglecting the possibility of adraw, he has a 1/2 chance of predicting a single result and a 1/64 chance of predicting six in a row. This feat would be unlikely, but not nearly as unlikely as winning the UK lottery, a chance of 1/14 million. Spiegelharter and Roquain point out that there are "other animals that have attempted but failed to predict the outcome of football matches"; it is not remarkable that one animal is more successful than the others, and only the successful animals will gain public attention after the fact.[10][11]
Potential biases
Roquain goes on to admit that chance is not necessarily the only explanation for Paul's choices. He could be choosing boxes systematically—if not on the basis of football expertise, then perhaps on his evaluation of the countries' flags or the food offered.[11]
The species Octopus vulgaris is almost certainly color blind; neither behavioral studies nor electroretinogram experiments show any discrimination of a color'shue.[12][13]Nonetheless, individuals can distinguish brightness as well as an object's size, shape, and orientation. Shelagh Malham of Bangor University states that they are drawn to horizontal shapes, and indeed, there are horizontal stripes on the flags he has chosen. The flag of Germany, a bold tricolor consisting of three equal horizontal bands of black,red and gold, is Paul's usual favorite. But theflag of Spain, with its broad yellow stripe, and the flag of Serbia, with its contrast ofblue and white, are more vivid still, possibly explaining why Paul picked those countries over Germany.[12] Fey suggested that Paul was confused by the similarities between the German and Spanish flags; this was on July 6, when Fey expressed hope that Paul's latest pick would be wrong.[14]
Matthew Fuller, the senior aquarist at the Weymouth park, judged the flag-shape theory to be plausible: "[Octopuses] are the most intelligent of all the invertebrates and studies have shown they are able to distinguish shapes and patterns so maybe he’s able to recognise flags."[15] Vyacheslav Bisikov, a Russian biologist, agrees that it is possible for an octopus to become attracted to a striped flag.[16]However, Pascal Coutant, director of the La Rochelle Aquarium states: "It's complete chance that guides his choices."[17]
Octopus vulgaris is also equipped with sensitive chemoreceptors on its tentacles, which are used to tastefood and "smell" the water. Biologist Volker Miske, of theUniversity of Greifswald, suggests that minor chemical differences on the surface of each box might account for Paul's decisions.[18] Bisikov states that Paul could be "easily trained" to choose the right box by smell.[16] According to Paul's keepers, there are holes in the jars to help him choose.[19]
Theories of his behavior could be systematically tested if Paul were to repeat his selection many times, but he only selects one box per game.[18] A scientificexperiment would be more vigilant towards sources of bias, including the flag visuals and potential differences in the preparation of the food.[11]
Results
In UEFA Euro 2008, Paul correctly predicted the outcome of 4 out of 6 of Germany's matches. He failed to predict their defeats by Croatia in the group stage,[20] and by Spain in the championship's final.[2][nb 1]
2010 FIFA World Cup
Paul's accurate choices for the 2010 World Cup, broadcast live by German news channel NTV, have endowed him with celebrity status.[2] Paul predicted the winners of each of the seven 2010 FIFA World Cup matches that the German team played, against Australia,Serbia, Ghana,England,Argentina, Spain,[22] and Uruguay. His prediction that Argentina would lose prompted Argentine chef Nicolas Bedorrou to post an octopus recipe on Facebook.[2]
There are always people who want to eat our octopus but he is not shy and we are here to protect him as well. He will survive.—Oliver Walenciak (Paul's keeper)[23]
Paul correctly predicted the outcome of the semi-final, by choosing the food in the box marked with the Spanish flag. German supporters drew hope from his incorrect choice for the Germany versus Spain match in the UEFA Euro 2008 but were disappointed.[24] The prediction led to death threats as German fans called for Paul to be cooked and eaten.[25][26] In response, Spanish prime minister Jose Zapaterojokingly offered to send Paul official state protection, and the Industry Minister Miguel Sebastian called for Paul to be given safe haven in Spain.[27][28] Paul maintained a 100% accurate record during the tournament by correctly predicting Spain's victory over the Netherlands in the final.
Results involving Germany
Opponent | Stage | Date | Prediction | Result | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Poland | group stage | 8 June 2008 |  Germany | 2–0 | Correct |
 Croatia | group stage | 12 June 2008 | Germany[2][20] | 1–2 | Incorrect |
 Austria | group stage | 16 June 2008 | Germany | 1–0 | Correct |
 Portugal | quarter-finals | 19 June 2008 | Germany | 3–2 | Correct |
 Turkey | semi-finals | 25 June 2008 | Germany | 3–2 | Correct |
 Spain | final | 29 June 2008 | Germany[2] | 0–1 | Incorrect |
World Cup 2010Opponent Stage Date Prediction Result Outcome Australia
group stage 13 June 2010 4–0 Correct Serbia
group stage 18 June 2010 0–1 Correct Ghana
group stage 23 June 2010 1–0 Correct England
round of 16 27 June 2010 4–1 Correct Argentina
quarter-finals 3 July 2010 4–0 Correct semi-finals 7 July 2010 0–1 Correct Uruguay
3rd place play-off 10 July 2010 3–2 Correct
Results not involving Germany
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Statistics
Assuming Paul's predictions were no better than fair independent coin flips, the probability of 12 successful predictions in 14 attempts is ~0.65%, as given by thebinomial distribution.[34]And the probability of 8 successful predictions out of 8 attempts is ~0.39%.[35]
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